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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Jonathan Taylor over 27.5 receiving yards
Won3 of 5last 5 games · 60%
Best price+137BetOnline
Price needs42.2%wins to break even
Every game8 of 23this season and last
Trend score-17.7Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% | 28receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% | 23.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% | 22.3receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 42% to break even | 22%–78% | 8 points betterwon 50%, needs 42% | 27.2receiving yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 42% to break even | 15%–49% | 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 42% | 22.2receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 2335%needs 42% to break even | 21%–52% | 7 points shortwon 35%, needs 42% | 23.5receiving yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 18.4 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends running backs
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Every book's price
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Jonathan Taylor over 27.5 receiving yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against over 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  TEN | 57 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  PIT | 37 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  WSH | 2 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  HOU | 4 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  KC | 40 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  BAL | 23 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | HOU | 13 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  JAX | 14 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  SF | 33 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  SEA | 14 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | JAX | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | HOU | 36 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | KC | 8 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  ATL | 42 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | PIT | 12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | TEN | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  LAC | 38 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  ARI | 14 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  LV | 20 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  LAR | 20 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | TEN | 16 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  DEN | 50 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  MIA | 27 | -0.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +124at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 45% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -18.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +105at Fanatics | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 49% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -21.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -105at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 51% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -22.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 17.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -24.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  -114at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -24.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 67% to break even8 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Jonathan Taylor in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +134at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 43% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -1.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +165at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 38% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -2.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 67.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) |  +189at BetOnline | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +200at Fanatics | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 33% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -8.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 15.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -193at DraftKings | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 66% to break even8 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 43% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -11.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 60.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -172at BetOnline | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 63% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -116at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -156at BetOnline | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 61% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 114.5 rush + rec yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.