This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 57% to break even | 59%–92% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 57% to break even | 22%–78% | 7 points shortwon 50%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 15 of 15100%needs 57% to break even | 85%–100% | 43 points betterwon 100%, needs 57% |
Tonight GB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsMatthew Golden |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden |
| Every game | 18 of 2186%needs 57% to break even | 69%–94% | 28 points betterwon 86%, needs 57% |
| 6 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| -150at BetRivers |
| 4 of 6· this season67%needs 60% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -34.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +112at DraftKings | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 13 of 15· last season87%needs 40% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.3Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 70.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +100at Fanatics | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 73.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Under 72.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -183at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last season93%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +105at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Over 75.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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