This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 2 of 1513%needs 53% to break even | 5%–33% | 39 points shortwon 13%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight GB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 75.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 75.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 104 | +28.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsMatthew Golden |
| 16%–46% |
| 24 points shortwon 29%, needs 53% |
| Wk 5 | 123 | +47.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 21 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 100 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 58 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 95 | +19.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 84 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 8 | -67.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 12 | -63.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -75.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 55 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -75.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 24 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 9 | -66.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 4 | -71.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 37 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 86 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 58 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 52 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -75.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 16 | -59.5 | Lost |
| +152at Kalshi |
| 13 of 15· last season87%needs 40% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.3Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 70.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +100at Fanatics | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 72.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Under 73.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -131at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +118at FanDuel |
| 14 of 15· last season93%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -135at BetMGM | 15 of 15· last season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.7Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -183at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last season93%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +112at DraftKings | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -150at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -34.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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