This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 50% to break even | 27%–73% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 50% to break even | 46%–83% | 17 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 50% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 13 of 1587%needs 50% to break even | 67%–95% | 37 points betterwon 87%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 15 of 2171%needs 50% to break even | 54%–84% | 21 points betterwon 71%, needs 50% |
Tonight GB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 70.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 70.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 104 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 123 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 21 | +49.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 100 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 58 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 95 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 84 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 8 | +62.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 12 | +58.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +70.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 55 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +70.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 24 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +61.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | +66.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 37 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 86 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 58 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 52 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +70.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | +54.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -137at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 70.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -135at Fanatics | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 72.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -117at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -26.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 73.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -112at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 75.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +105at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +118at FanDuel | 14 of 15· last season93%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 5.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -135at BetMGM | 15 of 15· last season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| Doesn't score a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -183at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last season93%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +112at DraftKings | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMatthew Golden · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -150at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -34.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.