This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 44% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 44% to break even | 17%–54% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 44% to break even | 12%–65% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 8 of 1942%needs 44% to break even | 26%–61% | 2 points shortwon 42%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 10 of 2540%needs 44% to break even | 26%–56% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against den 2h -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 20 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 29 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.