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NFLGame line1st half spread
DEN 1H -4.5 (1st half spread)
Won6 of 15last 15 games · 40%
Best price+137Polymarket
Price needs42.2%wins to break even
Every game8 of 25this season and last
Trend score-20.9Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 42% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 42% to break even | 12%–65% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 6 of 1932%needs 42% to break even | 17%–50% | 11 points shortwon 32%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 8 of 2532%needs 42% to break even | 19%–48% | 10 points shortwon 32%, needs 42% |
Games like tonight
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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DEN 1H -4.5 (1st half spread)2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
1H margin in each game against den 1h -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 |  SEA | 11 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 |  LAC | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 |  SF | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 |  LAR | -16 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 |  JAX | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  KC | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 25 |  NE | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 |  BUF | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | LAC | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 25 | KC | -1 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | JAX | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 |  GB | -2 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 |  LV | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 |  WSH | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | KC | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 6 | LV | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 |  HOU | -5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 |  DAL | 17 | +12.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 |  NYG | -13 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 |  NYJ | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 |  PHI | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 29 |  CIN | 18 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | LAC | -3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  IND | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 |  TEN | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Denver Broncos in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.