This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 51% to break even | 13%–56% | 21 points shortwon 30%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 51% to break even | 17%–54% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 51% to break even | 39%–76% | 8 points betterwon 59%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 51% to break even | 36%–68% | 1 points betterwon 52%, needs 51% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against over 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO -3.5 2nd half spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 20 |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 13 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 31 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 29 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 20 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 7 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 30 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 23 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 30 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 10 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 27 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 38 | +15.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 30 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 24 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 44 | +21.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 23 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 27 | +4.5 | Won |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +149at Polymarket | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 40% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 67% to break even | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 34% to break even |
| -4.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +114at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -109at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 2nd half spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 40% to break even | -9.0Not beating its price |
| NO +1.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -161at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 62% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
| NO +2.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| NO -0.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| NO +2.5 spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +124at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 45% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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