This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 45% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points shortwon 40%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 45% to break even | 44%–87% | 25 points betterwon 70%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 45% to break even | 39%–78% | 15 points betterwon 60%, needs 45% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 45% to break even | 22%–78% | 5 points betterwon 50%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 45% to break even | 24%–61% | 3 points shortwon 41%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 45% to break even | 28%–60% | 1 points shortwon 43%, needs 45% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against no +2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 7 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | -10 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | -21 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | -8 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | -1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 8 | +10.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 23 | +25.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 3 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 4 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | -4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 10 | +12.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | -24 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | -20 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | -12 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | -6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 12 | +14.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | -12 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | -31 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | -5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -109at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 2nd half spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 39% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| NO +1.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| NO +2.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.2Not beating its price |
| NO -0.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +173at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -148at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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