This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 63% to break even | 44%–95% | 17 points betterwon 80%, needs 63% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 63% to break even | 54%–93% | 17 points betterwon 80%, needs 63% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 63% to break even | 59%–92% | 17 points betterwon 80%, needs 63% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 63% to break even | 50%–96% | 21 points betterwon 83%, needs 63% |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 63% to break even | 45%–81% | 2 points betterwon 65%, needs 63% |
| Every game | 16 of 2370%needs 63% to break even | 52%–83% | 7 points betterwon 70%, needs 63% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against no 3q +1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 17 |
| +18.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | -1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 8 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 7 | +8.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 7 | +8.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 8 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | -7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | -10 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | -1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | -6 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -109at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 2nd half spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 39% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +105at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 49% to break even | -11.3Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +173at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -148at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 60% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| NO +2.5 spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +121at Polymarket | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 45% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 37% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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