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NFLGame line4th quarter spread
NO 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)
Won10 of 17last season · 59%
Best price+152Kalshi
Price needs39.7%wins to break even
Every game12 of 23this season and last
Trend score-12.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 40% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points betterwon 50%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 40% to break even | 33%–72% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 40% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 40% to break even | 12%–65% | 6 points shortwon 33%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 40% to break even | 39%–76% | 19 points betterwon 59%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 40% to break even | 36%–68% | 12 points betterwon 52%, needs 40% |
Games like tonight
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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NO 4Q -2.5 (4th quarter spread)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
4Q margin in each game against no 4q -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 4Q margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 |  NYG | -10 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 |  MIN | -10 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 |  ATL | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 |  LV | -13 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 |  BAL | 15 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 |  DET | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | ATL | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 |  TEN | 11 | +8.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 |  NYJ | 13 | +10.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 |  CAR | 10 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 |  TB | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 |  MIA | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | ATL | -5 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | CAR | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 |  LAR | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | TB | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 |  CHI | -3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 |  NE | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | NYG | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 |  BUF | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 |  SEA | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 |  SF | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 |  ARI | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on New Orleans Saints in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.