This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 57% to break even | 14%–73% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 57% to break even | 13%–56% | 27 points shortwon 30%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 57% to break even | 17%–54% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 57% to break even | 12%–65% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 57% to break even | 39%–76% | 2 points betterwon 59%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 57% to break even | 36%–68% | 5 points shortwon 52%, needs 57% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against over 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 31 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 29 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 7 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 30 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 30 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 27 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 38 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 30 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 24 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 44 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 27 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.