This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 31.8rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% | 47.2rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 53% to break even | 8%–41% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 61.7rushing and receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 53% to break even | 8%–75% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 38rushing and receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 147.3 rushing and receiving yards a game to running backs, the 2nd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 120.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How NO defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush + rec yards in each game against under 42.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush + rec yards | Beat 42.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 18%–53% |
| 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| 77.1rushing and receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 2133%needs 53% to break even | 19%–51% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 71.5rushing and receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 49 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 44 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 21 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 15 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 30 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 63 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 43 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 54 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 79 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 74 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 100 | -57.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 63 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 141 | -98.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 54 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 96 | -53.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 239 | -196.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 234 | -191.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 30 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 19 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | +26.5 | Won | |
| -120at DraftKings |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even7 of 11 on the road |
| -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +151at DraftKings | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 40% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +650at Fanatics |
| 9 of 18· last season50%needs 13% to break even4 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| 1.8Slight |
| Over 1.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +106at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even7 of 11 on the road | 0.2Slight |
| Over 6.5 rush attemptsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -139at BetOnline | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 58% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -1.9Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 rush attemptsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -200at BetOnline | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 67% to break even10 of 11 on the road | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -188at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 65% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -3.2Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +950at Caesars | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 10% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +326at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 23% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.8Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rush attemptsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +285at BetRivers | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 26% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +360at BetRivers | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 22% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +579at DraftKings | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 15% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +188at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 35% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +208at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 32% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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