This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 26% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 26% to break even | 0%–35% | 26 points shortwon 0%, needs 26% | 6.8rush attempts |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 26% to break even | 13%–56% | 4 points betterwon 30%, needs 26% | 9.5rush attempts |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 26% to break even | 28%–67% | 21 points betterwon 47%, needs 26% | 12.1rush attempts |
| This season | 0 of 30%needs 26% to break even | 0%–47% | 26 points shortwon 0%, needs 26% | 7.3rush attempts |
| Last season | 10 of 1856%needs 26% to break even | 37%–73% | 30 points betterwon 56%, needs 26% | 13.4rush attempts |
| Every game | 10 of 2148%needs 26% to break even | 31%–65% | 22 points betterwon 48%, needs 26% | 12.5rush attempts |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 24.2 rush attempts a game to running backs, the 10th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How NO defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush attempts | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 19 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 25 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 30 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 23 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 rush attemptsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -125at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +106at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even7 of 11 on the road | 0.2Slight | ||
| Over 4.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -188at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 65% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -3.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +950at Caesars | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 10% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +326at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 23% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +360at BetRivers | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 22% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +579at DraftKings | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 15% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +188at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 35% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -9.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 40.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -10.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 42.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 41.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +208at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 32% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 39.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -120at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -12.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.