This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 13% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 13% to break even | 0%–35% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% | 6.8rush attempts |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 13% to break even | 13%–56% | 17 points betterwon 30%, needs 13% | 9.5rush attempts |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 13% to break even | 28%–67% | 33 points betterwon 47%, needs 13% | 12.1rush attempts |
| This season | 0 of 30%needs 13% to break even | 0%–47% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% | 7.3rush attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 24.2 rush attempts a game to running backs, the 10th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How NO defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against over 11.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush attempts | Beat 11.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 32%–68% |
| 37 points betterwon 50%, needs 13% |
| 13.4rush attempts |
| Every game | 9 of 2143%needs 13% to break even | 27%–60% | 30 points betterwon 43%, needs 13% | 12.5rush attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 19 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 25 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 17 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 30 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 23 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| -125at BetMGM |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even6 of 11 on the road |
| -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +106at DraftKings |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even7 of 11 on the road |
| 0.2Slight |
| Over 4.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -188at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 65% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -3.2Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +950at Caesars | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 10% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +326at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 23% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.8Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +360at BetRivers | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 22% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +579at DraftKings | 4 of 18· last season22%needs 15% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +188at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 35% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -115at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +208at DraftKings | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 32% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rush + rec yardsRico Dowdle · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -120at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -12.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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