This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% | 206.6passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 59% to break even | 54%–93% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% | 261.5passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 59% to break even | 52%–87% | 14 points betterwon 73%, needs 59% | 246.6passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 59% to break even | 35%–88% | 7 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% | 240.5passing yards |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 7 at home. Tonight: PIT allows 222 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How PIT defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 217.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 217.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 144 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 7 of 1164%needs 59% to break even |
| 39%–82% |
| 4 points betterwon 64%, needs 59% |
| 216.7passing yards |
| Every game | 11 of 1765%needs 59% to break even | 45%–81% | 6 points betterwon 65%, needs 59% | 225.1passing yards |
| -73.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 96 | -121.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 286 | +68.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 255 | +37.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 252 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 410 | +192.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 259 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 333 | +115.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 308 | +90.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 272 | +54.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 144 | -73.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 239 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 243 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 282 | +64.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 176 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 128 | -89.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -217.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 4 of 11· last season36%needs 35% to break even2 of 7 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 48% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
| Under 227.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
| Under 228.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -113at DraftKings | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -183at Kalshi | 6 of 11· last season55%needs 65% to break even3 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -35.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +172at FanDuel |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 37% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| -0.8Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +142at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 41% to break even4 of 7 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +425at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 19% to break even0 of 7 at home | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +113at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even5 of 7 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +195at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 34% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -106at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +183at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 35% to break even4 of 7 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 250.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 246.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 248.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +266at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 27% to break even2 of 7 at home | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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