This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 35% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% | 225.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 35% to break even | 44%–87% | 35 points betterwon 70%, needs 35% | 279.9passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 35% to break even | 28%–67% | 11 points betterwon 47%, needs 35% | 265.1passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 35% to break even | 22%–78% | 15 points betterwon 50%, needs 35% | 257.8passing and rushing yards |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 7 at home. Tonight: PIT allows 237.8 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How PIT defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 279.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 279.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season | 4 of 1136%needs 35% to break even | 18%–61% | 1 points betterwon 36%, needs 35% | 233.6passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1741%needs 35% to break even | 24%–61% | 6 points betterwon 41%, needs 35% | 242.2passing and rushing yards |
| 176 |
| -103.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 96 | -183.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 291 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 291 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 275 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 418 | +138.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 293 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 339 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 316 | +36.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 304 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 199 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 257 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 265 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 279 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 178 | -101.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 140 | -139.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -279.5 | Lost |
| -115at BetMGM |
| 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -31.5Not beating its price |
| Under 246.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
| Under 248.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
| Under 250.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at DraftKings | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 40% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 237.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +105at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 7 at home | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +434at Polymarket | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 19% to break even0 of 7 at home | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 247.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +124at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even4 of 7 at home | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +195at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 34% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +108at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 227.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 228.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at Caesars | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 225.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +266at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 27% to break even2 of 7 at home | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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