This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 51% to break even | 27%–86% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% | 225.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 51% to break even | 54%–93% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% | 279.9passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 51% to break even | 52%–87% | 22 points betterwon 73%, needs 51% | 265.1passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 51% to break even | 35%–88% | 15 points betterwon 67%, needs 51% | 257.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last season | 7 of 1164%needs 51% to break even | 39%–82% | 12 points betterwon 64%, needs 51% | 233.6passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 11 of 1765%needs 51% to break even | 45%–81% | 13 points betterwon 65%, needs 51% | 242.2passing and rushing yards |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 7 at home. Tonight: PIT allows 237.8 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How PIT defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 249.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 249.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 176 | -73.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 96 | -153.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 291 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 291 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 275 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 418 | +168.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 293 | +43.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 339 | +89.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 316 | +66.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 304 | +54.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 199 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 257 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 265 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 279 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 178 | -71.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 140 | -109.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -249.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 243.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 246.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 248.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 250.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at DraftKings | 4 of 11· last season36%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.