This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 19% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 19% to break even | 14%–73% | 21 points betterwon 40%, needs 19% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 19% to break even | 13%–56% | 11 points betterwon 30%, needs 19% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 19% to break even | 13%–48% | 8 points betterwon 27%, needs 19% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 19% to break even | 12%–65% | 15 points betterwon 33%, needs 19% |
| Last season | 2 of 1118%needs 19% to break even | 6%–43% | 1 points shortwon 18%, needs 19% |
| Every game | 4 of 1724%needs 19% to break even | 11%–43% | 5 points betterwon 24%, needs 19% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 7 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Tyler Shough game, newest first: whether Shough scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 6 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 18 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 2 TDs | Won | |
| Wk 13 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.