This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 253.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 236.1passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 217.5passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 247.8passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 10 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 256 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How NO defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 234.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 19%–55% |
| 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% |
| 204passing yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 53% to break even | 28%–60% | 9 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% | 215.4passing yards |
| Beat 234.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 253 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 235 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 299 | +64.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 292 | +57.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 187 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 221 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 146 | -88.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 294 | +59.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 168 | -66.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 266 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 224 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 284 | +49.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 117 | -117.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 116 | -118.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 161 | -73.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 203 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 219 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 249 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 235 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 200 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 139 | -95.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 203 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 244 | +9.5 | Won | |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 on the road |
| -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +107at Polymarket | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Under 230.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -108at BetOnline | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at BetRivers | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Under 234.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -140at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 58% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -168at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 63% to break even6 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1300at BetRivers |
| 1 of 15· last 15 games7%needs 7% to break even1 of 10 on the road |
| -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +166at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +142at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -151at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -196at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 66% to break even8 of 10 on the road | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +106at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +110at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +186at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 35% to break even3 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 234.5 pass + rush yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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