This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 60% to break even | 44%–95% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% | 38.6pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 60% to break even | 54%–93% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% | 39.3pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 60% to break even | 39%–78% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% | 34.7pass attempts |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 60% to break even | 50%–96% | 23 points betterwon 83%, needs 60% | 38.8pass attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 10 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 33.3 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7). How NO defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 33.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 33.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 24%–61% |
| 19 points shortwon 41%, needs 60% |
| 31.2pass attempts |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 60% to break even | 36%–68% | 8 points shortwon 52%, needs 60% | 33.2pass attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 49 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 31 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 40 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 34 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 39 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 40 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 33 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 47 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 39 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 41 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 34 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 21 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 31 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 35 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 36 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 34 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 30 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 33 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 30 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| +101at Kalshi |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1300at BetRivers |
| 1 of 15· last 15 games7%needs 7% to break even1 of 10 on the road |
| -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +142at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -196at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 66% to break even8 of 10 on the road | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +110at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +186at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 35% to break even3 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +140at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 234.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 234.5 pass + rush yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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