This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 257.2passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 241.3passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 221.5passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 250.7passing and rushing yards |
| Last season | 12 of 1771%needs 53% to break even | 51%–85% | 17 points betterwon 71%, needs 53% | 207.6passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 53% to break even | 44%–76% | 8 points betterwon 61%, needs 53% | 218.8passing and rushing yards |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 275.7 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 6th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): a tough matchup for this bet. How NO defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against under 239.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards | Beat 239.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 252 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 241 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 299 | -59.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 302 | -62.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 192 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 218 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 146 | +93.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 314 | -74.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 174 | +65.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 275 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 224 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 284 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 117 | +122.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 124 | +115.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 161 | +78.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 203 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 219 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 255 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 236 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 208 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 140 | +99.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 206 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 243 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +1300at BetRivers | 1 of 15· last 15 games7%needs 7% to break even1 of 10 on the road | -5.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 37.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +166at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 21.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +142at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -12.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -151at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 60% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -15.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 20.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -196at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 66% to break even8 of 10 on the road | -16.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +106at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -16.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +110at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -16.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 199.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +140at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -17.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 234.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -18.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.