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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Jaylin Noel under 2.5 receptions
Won15 of 19last season · 79%
Best price-125DraftKings
Price needs55.6%wins to break even
Every game18 of 25this season and last
Trend score-13.7Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 56% to break even | 35%–81% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 56% to break even | 52%–87% | 18 points betterwon 73%, needs 56% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 56% to break even | 22%–78% | 6 points shortwon 50%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 15 of 1979%needs 56% to break even | 60%–90% | 23 points betterwon 79%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 18 of 2572%needs 56% to break even | 56%–84% | 16 points betterwon 72%, needs 56% |
Games like tonight
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Jaylin Noel under 2.5 receptions5 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  JAX | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  TEN | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  DAL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  IND | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CIN | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  BUF | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 |  NE | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 19 |  PIT | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | IND | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  LAC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  LV | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  ARI | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  KC | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | IND | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | BUF | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | TEN | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | JAX | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  DEN | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  SF | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  SEA | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  BAL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | TEN | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | JAX | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  TB | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  LAR | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +116at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Jaylin Noel in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +134at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +105at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +100at BetMGM | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -112at BetOnline | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -113at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -191at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.