This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 53% to break even | 22%–61% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 53% to break even | 50%–96% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 4 of 1921%needs 53% to break even | 10%–40% | 32 points shortwon 21%, needs 53% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · |
| Every game |
| 9 of 2536%needs 53% to break even |
| 22%–52% |
| 17 points shortwon 36%, needs 53% |
| Wk 6 | 107 | +79.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 41 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 85 | +57.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 31 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 53 | +25.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 13 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 54 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 4 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 35 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 63 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 77 | +49.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 13 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | -2 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 4 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 7 | -20.5 | Lost |
| +198at Kalshi |
| 15 of 19· last season79%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +140at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +114at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +100at BetMGM | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at BetOnline | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 13 of 19· last season68%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -125at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +116at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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