This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 46% to break even | 27%–86% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 46% to break even | 13%–48% | 20 points shortwon 27%, needs 46% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 4 of 1921%needs 46% to break even | 10%–40% | 25 points shortwon 21%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel |
| 16%–44% |
| 18 points shortwon 28%, needs 46% |
| 4 |
| +1.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 13 of 19· last season68%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -125at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 15 of 19· last season79%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +140at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +166at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +114at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +100at BetMGM | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at BetOnline | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -191at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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