This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 50% to break even | 19%–65% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 50% to break even | 39%–78% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 50% to break even | 4%–50% | 33 points shortwon 17%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 15 of 1979%needs 50% to break even | 60%–90% | 29 points betterwon 79%, needs 50% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 25.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 25.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · |
| 48%–78% |
| 14 points betterwon 64%, needs 50% |
| Wk 6 | 107 | -81.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 41 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 85 | -59.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 31 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 53 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 13 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 54 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 12 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 4 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 12 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 35 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 63 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 77 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 13 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | -2 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +18.5 | Won |
| -191at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 66% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -29.3Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -125at DraftKings |
| 15 of 19· last season79%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +116at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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