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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Jaylin Noel under 27.5 receiving yards
Won15 of 19last season · 79%
Best price-112BetOnline
Price needs52.8%wins to break even
Every game16 of 25this season and last
Trend score-20.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 53% to break even | 4%–50% | 36 points shortwon 17%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 15 of 1979%needs 53% to break even | 60%–90% | 26 points betterwon 79%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 16 of 2564%needs 53% to break even | 48%–78% | 11 points betterwon 64%, needs 53% |
Games like tonight
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Jaylin Noel under 27.5 receiving yards3 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against under 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  JAX | 107 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  TEN | 41 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  DAL | 85 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  IND | 17 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CIN | 31 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  BUF | 53 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 |  NE | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 19 |  PIT | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | IND | 13 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  LAC | 54 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  LV | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  ARI | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  KC | 12 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | IND | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | BUF | 4 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | TEN | 12 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | JAX | 35 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  DEN | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  SF | 63 | -35.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  SEA | 77 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  BAL | 13 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | TEN | -2 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | JAX | 4 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  TB | 0 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  LAR | 7 | +20.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -191at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 66% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -135at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Jaylin Noel in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -125at DraftKings | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJaylin Noel · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +116at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.