This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 41% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points shortwon 40%, needs 41% | 22completions |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 41% to break even | 7%–46% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% | 18.8completions |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 41% to break even | 13%–48% | 15 points shortwon 27%, needs 41% | 19.5completions |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 41% to break even | 8%–75% | 8 points shortwon 33%, needs 41% | 20.3completions |
| Last season | 5 of 1729% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 10 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 22.8 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 9th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How CAR defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against over 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 22.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 15%–49% |
| 12 points shortwon 29%, needs 41% |
| 20.2completions |
| Every game | 6 of 2030%needs 41% to break even | 16%–48% | 11 points shortwon 30%, needs 41% | 20.2completions |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 23 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 33 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 19 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 14 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 9 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 28 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 28 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 29 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 19 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost |
| -111at BetOnline |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 on the road |
| -15.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +200at FanDuel |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 33% to break even5 of 10 on the road |
| -3.5Not beating its price |
| Under 219.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.2Not beating its price |
| Under 217.5 passing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 on the road | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +525at BetMGM | 1 of 3· this season33%needs 16% to break even2 of 10 on the road | Record is this season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +124at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 45% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -178at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 64% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -143at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even8 of 10 on the road | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 237.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 242.5 pass + rush yardsBaker Mayfield · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -14.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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