This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 34% to break even | 0%–35% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 34% to break even | 7%–46% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 34% to break even | 8%–41% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 34% to break even | 0%–31% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 3 of 2015%needs 34% to break even | 6%–32% | 19 points shortwon 15%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 3 of 26 |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 71.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 71.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
| 5%–26% |
| 23 points shortwon 12%, needs 34% |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 134 | -62.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 102 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 76 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 128 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 155 | -83.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 122 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 27 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 21 | 153 | -81.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 20 | 19 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 84 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 72 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 96 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 113 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 92 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 167 | -95.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 105 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 93 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 129 | -57.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 123 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 162 | -90.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 132 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 79 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 96 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 103 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 124 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| -260at Bovada |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 72% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -7.6Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Over 81.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -165at Bovada | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 91.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 92.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Over 101.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 111.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +170at Bovada | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 11 of 20· last season55%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 46% to break even | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 34% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -127at BetRivers | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +116at FanDuel | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 46% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 63% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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