This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 47% to break even | 44%–95% | 33 points betterwon 80%, needs 47% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 47% to break even | 35%–81% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 47% to break even | 28%–67% | evenwon 47%, needs 47% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 47% to break even | 50%–96% | 37 points betterwon 83%, needs 47% |
| Last season | 10 of 2050%needs 47% to break even | 33%–67% | 3 points betterwon 50%, needs 47% |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 99.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 99.5 by | Bet |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
| Every game | 15 of 2658%needs 47% to break even | 42%–72% | 11 points betterwon 58%, needs 47% |
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 134 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 102 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 76 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 128 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 155 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 122 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 27 | -72.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 21 | 153 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 19 | -80.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 84 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 72 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 96 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 113 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 92 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -76.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 167 | +67.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 105 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 93 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 129 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 123 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 162 | +62.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 132 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 79 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 96 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 103 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 124 | +24.5 | Won | |
| +190at Bovada |
| 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 34% to break even |
| -25.1Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even | -26.0Not beating its price |
| Under 81.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 44% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 51% to break even | -30.9Not beating its price |
| Under 91.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -32.7Not beating its price |
| Under 92.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even | -33.1Not beating its price |
| Under 101.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -165at Bovada | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 62% to break even | -35.3Not beating its price |
| Under 111.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -230at Bovada | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 70% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 11 of 20· last season55%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 46% to break even | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 34% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -127at BetRivers | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +116at FanDuel | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 46% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 63% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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