This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 61% to break even | 14%–73% | 21 points shortwon 40%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 61% to break even | 19%–65% | 21 points shortwon 40%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 61% to break even | 28%–67% | 14 points shortwon 47%, needs 61% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 61% to break even | 12%–65% | 27 points shortwon 33%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 10 of 2050%needs 61% to break even | 33%–67% | 11 points shortwon 50%, needs 61% |
| Every game |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 101.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
| 31%–62% |
| 14 points shortwon 46%, needs 61% |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| +124at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 45% to break even |
| -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +125at Bovada |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 91.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -260at Bovada | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 72% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Over 111.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +170at Bovada | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 92.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 20· last season55%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 81.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -165at Bovada | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 34% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -127at BetRivers | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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