This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 37% to break even | 27%–86% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 37% to break even | 27%–73% | 13 points betterwon 50%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 37% to break even | 22%–61% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 37% to break even | 35%–88% | 30 points betterwon 67%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 8 of 2040%needs 37% to break even | 24%–58% | 3 points better |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 111.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 111.5 by | Bet |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
| Every game | 12 of 2646%needs 37% to break even | 31%–62% | 9 points betterwon 46%, needs 37% |
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 134 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 102 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 76 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 128 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 155 | +43.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 122 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 27 | -84.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 21 | 153 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 19 | -92.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 84 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 72 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 96 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 113 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 92 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -88.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 167 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 105 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 93 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 129 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 123 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 162 | +50.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 132 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 79 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 96 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 103 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 124 | +12.5 | Won | |
| +190at Bovada |
| 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 34% to break even |
| -25.1Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even | -26.0Not beating its price |
| Under 81.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 44% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 52% to break even | -31.7Not beating its price |
| Under 91.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -32.7Not beating its price |
| Under 92.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even | -33.1Not beating its price |
| Under 101.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -165at Bovada | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 62% to break even | -35.3Not beating its price |
| Under 111.5 receiving yardsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -230at Bovada | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 70% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +124at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 45% to break even |
| -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 20· last season55%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 34% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -127at BetRivers | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +116at FanDuel | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 46% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsJaxon Smith-Njigba · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 63% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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