This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 42% to break even | 44%–95% | 38 points betterwon 80%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 42% to break even | 44%–87% | 28 points betterwon 70%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 42% to break even | 52%–87% | 31 points betterwon 73%, needs 42% |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 42% to break even | 41%–90% | 29 points betterwon 71%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 42% to break even | 54%–90% | 35 points betterwon 77%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 15 of 2075%needs 42% to break even | 57%–87% | 33 points betterwon 75%, needs 42% |
Tonight CAL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against SMU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against cal +14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -34 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL to win moneylineCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET |
| 5 |
| +19.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | -8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | -14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 42 | +56.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 3 | +17.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | -21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 24 | -4 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +17.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +17.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | -10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 24 | -8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 17 | 3 | +17.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | -24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 4 | +18.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -34 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 13 | +27.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 32 | +46.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 19 | +33.5 | Won |
| 7 of 13· last season54%needs 11% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 9.4Strong |
| CAL +6.5 1st quarter spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 50% to break even | 4.5Good |
| CAL +10.5 1st half spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | 4.1Good |
| Over 20.5 team totalCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | 3.4Good |
| CAL +8.5 1st half spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | 3.0Good |
| CAL +9.5 1st half spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.2Slight |
| CAL +11.5 1st half spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 12 of 13· last season92%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.0Slight |
| CAL +13.5 1st half spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 13· last season100%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price |
| CAL +3.5 3rd quarter spreadCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, CAL gamesCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +162at Polymarket | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, CAL gamesCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Under 57.5 game total, CAL gamesCalifornia Golden Bears · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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