This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 53% to break even | 41%–90% | 19 points betterwon 71%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 1457%needs 53% to break even | 36%–76% | 4 points betterwon 57%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 13 of 2162%needs 53% to break even | 44%–77% | 9 points betterwon 62%, needs 53% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against over 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 23.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 31 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 35 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 11 | 31 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 17 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 21 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 14 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 16 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 42 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 42 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 49 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 38 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Today 7:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 36% to break even | -22.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 20.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Today 7:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 44% to break even | -25.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 23.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Today 7:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -25.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.