This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 43% to break even | 0%–35% | 43 points shortwon 0%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 43% to break even | 13%–56% | 13 points shortwon 30%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 43% to break even | 22%–61% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 43% to break even | 3%–45% | 28 points shortwon 14%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 5 of 1436%needs 43% to break even | 19%–57% | 7 points shortwon 36%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 6 of 2129%needs 43% to break even | 16%–46% | 14 points shortwon 29%, needs 43% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 35 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 42 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 42 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 49 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 38 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 23.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 27.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 6 of 14· last season43%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.