This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 37% to break even | 5%–56% | 17 points shortwon 20%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 37% to break even | 27%–73% | 13 points betterwon 50%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 37% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points betterwon 47%, needs 37% |
| This season | 3 of 743%needs 37% to break even | 19%–71% | 6 points betterwon 43%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 8 of 1457%needs 37% to break even | 36%–76% | 20 points betterwon 57%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 11 of 2152%needs 37% to break even | 35%–69% | 15 points betterwon 52%, needs 37% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against uva -5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -10 | -15.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA -3.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
| Oct 10 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 3 | -31 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 39 | +33.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | -11 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 11 | 56 | +50.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 26 | +20.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | -7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 20 | +14.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 17 | +11.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | -7 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 28 | +22.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 39 | +33.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | -4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 41 | +35.5 | Won |
| 5 of 7· this season71%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 1.1Slight |
| UVA -2.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 3rd quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 13 of 14· last season93%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.6Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -208at Kalshi | 12 of 14· last season86%needs 68% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -6.5 1st half spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 team totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 3rd quarter totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 1st half totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
| UVA -1.5 2nd half spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.0Not beating its price |
| UVA to win moneylineVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | PX-120at ProphetX | 11 of 14· last season79%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| UVA -0.5 2nd half spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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