This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 61% to break even | 65%–100% | 39 points betterwon 100%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 10 of 10100%needs 61% to break even | 79%–100% | 39 points betterwon 100%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 14 of 1593%needs 61% to break even | 75%–98% | 33 points betterwon 93%, needs 61% |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 61% to break even | 69%–100% | 39 points betterwon 100%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 12 of 1486%needs 61% to break even | 65%–95% | 25 points betterwon 86%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 18 of 2090%needs 61% to break even | 74%–97% | 29 points betterwon 90%, needs 61% |
Tonight DUKE plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UVA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against duke 2h +3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat -3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 6 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 24 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 21 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 7 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 4 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | -1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 13 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | -9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 14 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 14 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 11 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 8 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -25 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 28 | +31.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.