This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 37% to break even | 27%–86% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 978%needs 37% to break even | 50%–92% | 41 points betterwon 78%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1457%needs 37% to break even | 36%–76% | 20 points betterwon 57%, needs 37% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 37% to break even | 35%–88% | 30 points betterwon 67%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 7 of 1354%needs 37% to break even | 32%–74% | 17 points betterwon 54%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 11 of 1958%needs 37% to break even | 39%–74% | 21 points betterwon 58%, needs 37% |
Tonight DUKE plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UVA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against duke -3, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 3 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -4 | -7 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -3 | -6 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 55 | +52 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 28 | +25 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 14 | +11 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 3 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 6 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 17 | +14 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -17 | -20 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -3 | -6 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | -9 | -12 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 24 | +21 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 35 | +32 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 12 | +9 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -7 | -10 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -26 | -29 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 28 | +25 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.