This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 54% to break even | 19%–65% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 54% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 54% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 54% to break even | 26%–68% | 8 points shortwon 46%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 9 of 1947%needs 54% to break even | 30%–65% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 28.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 28.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 13 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 27.5 1st half totalUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH -13.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET |
| 38 |
| -9.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 27 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 26 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 32 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 3 | 38 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 38 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 17 | +11.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 52 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 45 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 31 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 43 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 17 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 24 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 28 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 13 | +15.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +25.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 41 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 30 | -1.5 | Lost |
| 8 of 13· last season62%needs 57% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 1st half totalUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 54% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 1st half totalUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 49% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 1st half totalUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 35% to break even | -13.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 36% to break even |
| 9.3Strong |
| UTAH -9.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 7.1Good |
| UTAH -9.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 37% to break even | 7.1Good |
| UTAH -11.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 39% to break even | 6.9Good |
| UTAH -8.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 6.7Good |
| UTAH -10.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 40% to break even | 5.7Good |
| UTAH -7.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 46% to break even | 5.0Good |
| UTAH -3.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.9Good |
| UTAH -2.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.8Good |
| UTAH -7.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 40% to break even | 4.6Good |
| UTAH -0.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.6Good |
| UTAH -2.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.4Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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