This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 36% to break even | 44%–95% | 44 points betterwon 80%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 36% to break even | 44%–87% | 34 points betterwon 70%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 36% to break even | 52%–87% | 38 points betterwon 73%, needs 36% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 36% to break even | 50%–96% | 48 points betterwon 83%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 36% to break even | 39%–80% | 26 points betterwon 62%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 36% to break even | 50%–83% | 33 points betterwon 68%, needs 36% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against utah 1h -9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH -13.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET |
| 4 |
| -5.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 21 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 26 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 26 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 3 | 24 | +14.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | -10 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 11 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 17 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 43 | +33.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | -3 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 18 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 28 | +18.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 29 | +19.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 16 | +6.5 | Won |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 35% to break even |
| 9.7Strong |
| UTAH -11.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 39% to break even | 6.9Good |
| UTAH -8.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 6.7Good |
| UTAH -9.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 45% to break even | 6.4Good |
| UTAH -10.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 40% to break even | 5.7Good |
| UTAH -7.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 46% to break even | 5.0Good |
| UTAH -3.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.9Good |
| UTAH -2.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.9Good |
| UTAH -0.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.6Good |
| UTAH to win moneylineUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | NV-217at Novig | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 68% to break even | 1.1Slight |
| Over 37.5 team totalUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.6Slight |
| UTAH -6.5 spreadUtah Utes · Tomorrow 10:15 PM ET | NV-108at Novig | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 52% to break even | 0.6Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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