This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 34% to break even | 44%–95% | 46 points betterwon 80%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 34% to break even | 44%–87% | 36 points betterwon 70%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 34% to break even | 39%–78% | 26 points betterwon 60%, needs 34% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 34% to break even | 55%–97% | 52 points betterwon 86%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 5 of 1338%needs 34% to break even | 20%–61% | 5 points betterwon 38%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 11 of 2055%needs 34% to break even | 37%–72% | 21 points betterwon 55%, needs 34% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against hou 1q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU +3.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET |
| 4 |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 18 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 28 | +27.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | -12 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 28 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 43% to break even |
| 22.2Very strong |
| HOU +2.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 7· this season100%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | 22.0Very strong |
| HOU +4.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 46% to break even | 19.9Very strong |
| HOU +5.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 47% to break even | 19.0Very strong |
| HOU to win moneylineHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | NV+213at Novig | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 32% to break even | 17.4Very strong |
| HOU +6.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | NV+100at Novig | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 50% to break even | 16.4Very strong |
| HOU +1.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 36% to break even | 14.5Strong |
| HOU -0.5 1st half spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | 10.4Strong |
| HOU +7.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 58% to break even | 10.2Strong |
| Over 24.5 team totalHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 7· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | 9.9Strong |
| HOU +10.5 spreadHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 65% to break even | 8.1Strong |
| Over 23.5 team totalHouston Cougars · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 58% to break even | 8.0Strong |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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