This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 37% to break even | 65%–100% | 63 points betterwon 100%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 37% to break even | 65%–98% | 53 points betterwon 90%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 37% to break even | 67%–95% | 50 points betterwon 87%, needs 37% |
| This season | 7 of 7100%needs 37% to break even | 72%–100% | 63 points betterwon 100%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 37% to break even | 54%–90% | 40 points betterwon 77%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 17 of 2085%needs 37% to break even | 68%–94% | 48 points betterwon 85%, needs 37% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against hou +2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 19 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 10 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | -2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 71 | +73.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 13 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -10 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 8 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 22 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -24 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 16 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 26 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 27 | +29.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.