This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 35% to break even | 44%–95% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 35% to break even | 54%–93% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 35% to break even | 59%–92% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 35% to break even | 55%–97% | 51 points betterwon 86%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 35% to break even | 54%–90% | 42 points betterwon 77%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 16 of 2080%needs 35% to break even | 62%–91% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against hou +1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 19 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 10 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 71 | +72.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 13 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -10 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 8 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 22 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -24 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 16 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 26 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 27 | +28.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.