This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 35% to break even | 44%–95% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 35% to break even | 54%–93% | 45 points betterwon 80%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 35% to break even | 52%–87% | 39 points betterwon 73%, needs 35% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 35% to break even | 55%–97% | 51 points betterwon 86%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 35% to break even | 39%–80% | 27 points betterwon 62%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 14 of 2070%needs 35% to break even | 52%–84% | 35 points betterwon 70%, needs 35% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against hou 1h -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 11 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 18 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 49 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 12 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 17 | +16.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.