This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 54% to break even | 44%–95% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 54% to break even | 44%–87% | 16 points betterwon 70%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 54% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 54% to break even | 55%–97% | 32 points betterwon 86%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 54% to break even | 26%–68% | 8 points shortwon 46%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 12 of 2060%needs 54% to break even | 42%–76% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against hou 1q +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 28 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.