This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 60% to break even | 27%–86% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 60% to break even | 44%–87% | 10 points betterwon 70%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 60% to break even | 59%–92% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 60% to break even | 22%–78% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 12 of 1392%needs 60% to break even | 72%–98% | 32 points betterwon 92%, needs 60% |
| Every game | 15 of 1979%needs 60% to break even | 60%–90% | 19 points betterwon 79%, needs 60% |
Tonight ARMY plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TLSA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 57.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 57.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 80 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 48.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY +4.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET |
| 37 |
| +20.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | 60 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 25 | 38 | +19.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 52 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 62 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 33 | +24.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | 51 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 51 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 27 | +30.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | AFA | 37 | +20.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 41 | +16.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 31 | +26.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 44 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | 34 | +23.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 83 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 45 | +12.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 57 | +0.5 | Won |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 67% to break even |
| -28.6Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -179at Polymarket | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 64% to break even | -26.7Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 63% to break even | -25.5Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 59% to break even | Record is this season's | -28.8Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -32.7Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -30.0Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -26.6Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Over 57.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 2 of 6· this season33%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 63% to break even |
| 3.6Good |
| ARMY -3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 37% to break even | 1.5Slight |
| ARMY +5.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -195at Polymarket | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 66% to break even | 1.3Slight |
| ARMY +0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 54% to break even | 0.1Slight |
| ARMY +2.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 55% to break even | -0.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY -1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| ARMY +1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -2.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY +2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 58% to break even | -2.6Not beating its price |
| ARMY -0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY +3.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 61% to break even | -3.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY +1.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Today 8:30 PM ET | -105at Hard Rock | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 51% to break even | -4.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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