This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 51% to break even | 27%–86% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 51% to break even | 54%–93% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 51% to break even | 59%–92% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 51% to break even | 35%–88% | 15 points betterwon 67%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 51% to break even | 46%–85% | 18 points betterwon 69%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 51% to break even | 50%–83% | 17 points betterwon 68%, needs 51% |
Tonight ARMY plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TLSA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against army +1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 32 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY -3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET |
| 3 |
| +4.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 25 | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 56 | +57.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 25 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | -1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | AFA | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | -7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 17 | +18.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 18 | +19.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | -22 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 36% to break even |
| 2.8Slight |
| ARMY +0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 54% to break even | 0.1Slight |
| ARMY -2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY +2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -1.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY -1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| ARMY +1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -2.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY +3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 64% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.5Not beating its price |
| ARMY to win moneylineArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | NV+113at Novig | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | LVG-108at LowVig | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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