This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 61% to break even | 44%–95% | 19 points betterwon 80%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 61% to break even | 65%–98% | 29 points betterwon 90%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 61% to break even | 67%–95% | 26 points betterwon 87%, needs 61% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 61% to break even | 50%–96% | 23 points betterwon 83%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 61% to break even | 54%–90% | 16 points betterwon 77%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 15 of 1979%needs 61% to break even | 60%–90% | 18 points betterwon 79%, needs 61% |
Tonight ARMY plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TLSA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against army +3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 32 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY -3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET |
| 3 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | -2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | 4 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | -4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 56 | +59.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 25 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | -1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | AFA | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 17 | +20.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 18 | +21.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | -22 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | -3 | +0.5 | Won |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 36% to break even |
| 2.8Slight |
| ARMY +0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 55% to break even | -0.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 43% to break even | -0.5Not beating its price |
| ARMY -1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY +2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -1.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY +1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -2.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY +3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 64% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.6Not beating its price |
| ARMY +4.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 67% to break even | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, ARMY gamesArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.7Not beating its price |
| ARMY to win moneylineArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | NV+113at Novig | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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