This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 46% to break even | 27%–86% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 46% to break even | 17%–54% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 46% to break even | 29%–81% | 11 points betterwon 57%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 4 of 1527%needs 46% to break even | 13%–48% | 19 points shortwon 27%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 8 of 2236%needs 46% to break even | 22%–54% | 9 points shortwon 36%, needs 46% |
Tonight ALA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against TA&M. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against over 12.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q total points | Beat 12.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 9 | -3.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA -3.5 2nd quarter spreadAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET |
| Lost |
| Oct 10 | 3 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 3 | 21 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 17 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 14 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 1 | 0 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 14 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 21 | +8.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 14 | +1.5 | Won |
| 7 of 15· last season47%needs 45% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -25.5Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 1st quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even |
| -4.4Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 team totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.5Not beating its price |
| ALA -4.5 2nd quarter spreadAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 3rd quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last season80%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| ALA -20.5 spreadAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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