This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 57% to break even | 65%–100% | 43 points betterwon 100%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 57% to break even | 52%–87% | 17 points betterwon 73%, needs 57% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 57% to break even | 55%–97% | 29 points betterwon 86%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 10 of 1567%needs 57% to break even | 46%–83% | 10 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 16 of 2273%needs 57% to break even | 55%–85% | 16 points betterwon 73%, needs 57% |
Tonight ALA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against TA&M. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2Q margin in each game against ala 2q -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2Q margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 7 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 37.5 team totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 10 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 3 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 16 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 21 | +17.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 1 | -17 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 10 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 6 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 21 | +17.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| 5 of 7· this season71%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 3rd quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last season80%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 1st quarter totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| ALA -20.5 spreadAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +193at Polymarket | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 34% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 1st half totalAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, ALA gamesAlabama Crimson Tide · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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