This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 50% to break even | 44%–95% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 50% to break even | 27%–73% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 50% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points betterwon 53%, needs 50% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 50% to break even | 50%–96% | 33 points betterwon 83%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 50% to break even | 26%–68% | 4 points shortwon 46%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 11 of 1958%needs 50% to break even | 39%–74% | 8 points betterwon 58%, needs 50% |
Tonight ILL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against ORE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 27 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 1st half totalIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL to win moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
| 20 |
| -4.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 38 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 41 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 45 | +20.5 | Won |
| Sep 3 | 34 | +9.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 30 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 27 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 38 | +13.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 41 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 45 | +20.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 10 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 27 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 31 | +6.5 | Won |
| 7 of 13· last season54%needs 54% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -26.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 9 of 13· last season69%needs 25% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 6.5Good |
| ILL +0.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.4Slight |
| ILL +4.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.1Slight |
| ILL +6.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | 1.0Slight |
| ILL +7.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even | 0.8Slight |
| ILL +2.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.3Slight |
| ILL +5.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.5Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, ILL gamesIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -1.0Not beating its price |
| ILL +6.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ILL +8.5 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.5Not beating its price |
| ILL +9 spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | LVG-106at LowVig | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.7Not beating its price |
| ILL +4.5 1st half spreadIllinois Fighting Illini · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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